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Council  of  Planning  Librarians      exchange  bibliography 

May  1972 


DEMAND:   Some  Hypotheses  and  a  Bibliography 

Richard  C.  Harkness 
Urban  Transportation  Program 

Departments  of  Urban  Planning  and  Civil  Engineering 
University  of  Washington 

Mrs.  Mary  Vance,  Editor 
Post  Office  Box  229 
Monticello,  Illinois   61856 

MAY  15  ^97? 


COUNCIL  OF  PLMNING  LIBRARlAi^IS       Sxchange  Bibliography  #28^ 


Some  Hypotheses  and  a  Bibliography 


Richard  C.  Harkness 

Urban  Transportation  Program 

Departments  of  Urban  Planning  and  Civil  Engineering 

University  of  Washington 

-    Seattle,  Washington     98195 

This  report  was  produced  as  part  of  a  Research  and  Trairdng 
Program  in  Urban  Transportation  sponsored  by  the  Urban  Mass  Trans- 
portation Administration  of  the  United  States  Department  of  Trans- 

The  results  and  views  expressed  are  the  independent  products 
of  university  research  and  are  not  necessarily  concurred  in  by  the 
Urban  Mass  Transportation  Administration  of  the  Department  of 


















2.     CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #265 


Hypotheses  are  developed  about  the  effects  of  teleeoBnunl ca- 
tions advances  on  urban  growth  patterns  and  xirban  travel  denaads. 
It  is  suggested  that  CBD  office  enqployment  might  decentralize  if 
telecomiminications  co\ild  effectively  substitute  for  short  inter- 
office business  trips  and  that  job  decentralization  wcwld  alter 
journey- to-viork  patterns  and  the  viability  of  certain  public  tran- 
sit systems.     Kajor  research  questions  are  raised  and  keyed  to  an 
extensive  bibliography. 

3*  CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  /;'285 


The  author  is  indebted  to  the  Boeing  Compare'-,  whose  continued 
interest  and  support  has  made  this  research  possible,   and  to  the 
members  of  his  doctoral  coiranittee:     Doctors  Edward  Wank,  Jr. 
(Chairman),  Virgil  2.  Harder,  Richard  A.  Johnson,  Thomas  P.   Rona, 
and  Jerry  B.  Schneider  for  their  guidance  and  encouragement. 

In  addition,   the  author  greatly  appreciates  the  generosity  of 
Dr.  Alex  Reid,   of  the  Communications  Study  Group  at  the  Joint  Unit 
for  Planning  Research,  London,   for  making  available  a  large  number 
of  excellent  references  during  the  author's  recent  ijorking  visit. 
Mr.  Robert  Hall,   of  the  Location  of  Offices  Bureau,   also  provided 
many  useful  references  and  his  help  is  gratefully  acknowledged. 

Finally,  the  author  appreciates  the  assistance  of  Dorothy 
Linder,  Barbara  Hehr  and  Joyce  O'Brien  in  preparing  this  publica- 

U*  CPL  Exchange  idbliogrephy  p2fc5 

P/P.T  I 


Advances  in  teleccraroinications  have  been  so  rapid,   so  poverf"al 
and  so  iddespread  that  their  irpact  on  society  has  teen  called  a 
revolution — the  coranuni cations  revolution.     V.'ith  CATV,  pdcture- 
phone,   rapid  facsimile,   and  nev?  data  netvorks  on  the  near  horizon 
this  revolution  is  sweeping  in,  inexorably,   and  with  increasing 

A  question  that  has  received  niuch  speculation  and  alnost  no 
substantive  research  is  that  of  technology  impact  or  tecm«)logy 
assessment,     VJhat  i-dll  be  the  effects  of  drastically  reducing  the 
cost  and  effort  of  coranunication  on  social  processes,  political 
processes,   the  conduct  of  business,   the  urban  fom,   and  on  travel? 
One  speculation  found  often  in  the  literature  is  that  radically 
improved  communications  nay  substitute  for  inter-office  biisiness 
trips  and  thus  weaken  the  ties  that  bind  office  er^Jloynent  to  the 
center  cities.     The  general  result  vould  be  a  more  dispersed  urban 
form,  perhaps  in  the  pattern  of  Los  Angeles  but  even  less  dense. 
It  has  also  been  suggested  that  people  right  vork  at  hone  and  tele- 
commute  to  work  from  closed  circuit  TV  consoles.     The  office  right 
cease  to  exist  except  as  a  switchboard  and  electronic  data  bank 
tucked  away  in  any  convenient  location. 

The  implications  of  such  a  dispersal  vould  be  of  the  utmost 
importance  to  ui'ban  planners,   transportation  agencies,  property 
owners,   and  the  general  public.     The  purpose  of  this  report  is  to 
discuss  some  hypotheses  on  connuni cations  iji5)act,  outline  the  major 

$.  CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  j'2Q$ 

research  questions,  and  present  a   fairly  extensive  bibliography 
with  the  hope  that  it  may  stimulate  others  to  conduct  investigations 
in  this  inportant  area. 

6.  CPL  Zxch£inge  ELbl:.' .,_ 


The  concept  of  substituting  ccmunications  for  transportation 
is  not  a  new  one.     Zver  since  man  began  using  signal  fires  or  >rrit- 
ing  letters  communications  has  been  substituted  for  travel.     The 
telegraph  and  telephone  have  provided  real-time  corrunicaticn  and 
it  is  difficult  to  imagine  hov  many  trips  they  have  saved.     Never- 
theless, it  is  almost  impossible  to  imagine  hcv  any  electronic 
communications  channel  could  be  substituted  for  many  social  or 
recreational  trips  or  hov;  it  could  be  substituted  for  a  patient's 
trip  to  the  hospital.     Hovever,  vrhat  we  are  concerned  vlth  here  is 
the  large  number  of  business  trips  that  are  made  in  order  to  con- 
duct face-to-face  discussions  and  to  work  over  various  written  or 
graphic  material.     These  trips  do  not  require  any  phj-sical  contact 
between  participants.     Both  intuition  and  some  actiial  experinents 
suggest  that  two-v/ay  television  and  facsimile  should  suffice  in 
many  cases.     There  is  also  the  possibility  that  advanced  audio  con- 
ferencing might  be  quite  effective  and  be  far  less  e:q)ensive  than 
two-v;ay  video.     The  question  is  not  whether  teleconferencing  is 
better  than  face-to-face,  but  rather  whether  its  advantages  out- 
v;eigh  its  disadvantages.     For  excrple,   teleconferences  eliminate 
travel  time  and  e^ense,   allow  faster  inf crr.stion  turnaround  and 
decision  making,  more  short  vinschediled  meetings,  more  Iccational 
freedom,   and  probably  use  less  material  and  energy  resoxirees. 

Therefore,  what  appears  to  be  emerging  is  a  ccr.petition  bet- 
ween eoirjminications  and  transportation  facilities  for  servicing 
the  large  number  of  contacts  that  now  require  travel  but  which 

7.      GPL  Exchange  Bibliography  ,f285 
might  possibly  be  made  electronically.  Planners  are  interested 
in  the  modal  split  between  travel  and  teleconferencing,  in  other 
words  the  relative  percentage  of  all  contacts  that  use  each  mode. 
They  are  interested  in  forecasting  the  shift  of  this  modal  split 
over  the  next  twenty  years.  Certainly  any  improvements  in  trans- 
port will  tend  to  increase  its  share j  however,  it  appears  that  com- 
munication services  can  be  extended  and  improved  more  readily  than 
can  transport  services  since  communications  facilities  have  low 
visibility  and  are  largely  controlled  by  private  firms  whereas 
transport  facilities  are  highly  visible,  controversial,  and  depen- 
dent on  a  public-political  decision-making  process  for  iir^^lementa- 
tion.  Therefore  it  is  probable  that  corrmuni cations  xnll   tend  to 
improve  faster  than  transport  and  a  relative  shift  from  real  travel 
to  tele-travel  should  result. 

VJe  cajinot  assume  that  if  communications  can  be  effectively 
substituted  for  certain  trips  that  it  i-dll  reduce  the  absolute 
level  of  demand  for  travel.  The  absolute  growth  in  the  number  of 
contacts  may  be  enough  to  offset  any  trips  lost  by  a  shift  in  the 
modal  split  share.  For  example,  the  growth  in  social  and  recrea- 
tional travel  could  greatly  exceed  arQr  loss  of  business  travel. 
Finally,  there  is  the  possibility  that  communication  may  stimulate 
travel  and  vice  versa.  Usually  telephone  calls  precede  a  meeting 
and  the  meeting  itself  provides  topics  for  further  communication. 
This  argument  has  been  used  to  disclaim  the  threat  vrhich  telecom- 
munications might  pose  to  the  transportation  industryj  however, 
its  validity  remains  to  be  proved,  l-ieetings  do  beget  contacts. 

8.  CPL  Ejcchange  filtliogrephy  #28$ 

but  Is  it  necessary  that  the  meetings  involve  travel?     V*o\ild  not  a 
teleccnference  be  as  effective  aa  a  face-to-face  meeting  in  stin- 
ulating  new  contacts?     y.nd  might  not  telephone  calls  lead  to  tele- 
conferences rather  than  trips? 

There  are  other  questions  that  arise  concerning  the  iapact  of 
telecommunications  of  \irban  form  and  travel.     Perhaps  the  questions 
of  impact  should  be  explored  even  before  ve  delve  into  the  problen 
of  how  effective  telecommunications  could  be  as  a  substitute  for 
face-to-face  meetings.     If  no  significant  impact  could  be  foreseen, 
then  the  question  of  substitution  is  only  of  academic  interest  to 
the  urban  planner. 

Let  us  assume  na\.r  that  telecommunications  does  turn  out  to  be 
a  viable  alternative  to  business  travel  in  mzixy  cases.     How  right 
this  affect  the  fut\ire  of  our  cities?     V'e  recognize  that  the  pre- 
sent size  and  shape  of  cities  and  the  location  of  activities  with- 
in the  cities  is  largely  the  result  of  individual  location  deci- 
sions.    The  "conprehensive  plans"  that  are  intended  to  shape  urban 
development  lack  teeth  and  are  largely  ineffective;   thus  the  evolu- 
tion of  the  urban  form  simply  reflects  an  aggregation  of  individual, 
self-serving  location  decisions.     Certainly  zoning,   taxes,   trans- 
portation,  topography,   and  other  factors  influence  and  constrain 
individual  location  choices  but  there  is  still  considerable  freedon 
for  the  individual  office  or  factory  to  take  advantage  of  new  tech- 
nologies and  locate  where  it  sees  fit.     The  irportant  point  is  that 
highly  effective  ccanmuni cations  systems  maj'  provide  new  location 
opportunities,   activities  nay  seize  these  cpport unities,   and  a  new 

9.     GPL  Exchange  Bibliography  ,v285 
urban  form  may  emerge  td-thout  any  overall  policy  guidance.  This 
new  urban  form  may  render  transportation  systems  and  plans  obso- 
lete, may  conflict  desired  land  use  policy  as  expressed  in 
comprehensive  plans,  may  radically  alter  property  values  and  may 
create  a  new  pseudo-urban  life  stj^'le.  The  implication  for  planners 
is  clear.  If  they  cannot  stall  the  communications  revolution,  if 
they  cannot  control  location  decisions,  then  they  should  attempt 
to  understand  this  phenomenon,  predict  its  likely  impact  and  re- 
structure their  plans  accordingly.  In  particular,  plans  calling 
for  high  capacity,  radial  rapid  rail  transit  systems  should  be  re- 
evaluated in  light  of  a  possible  decentralization  of  expected 
downtown  office  groTith, 

On  the  other  hand,  communications  technology  could  be  viewed 
as  a  new  tool  for  shaping  urban  development.  Just  like  transpor- 
tation, communications  could  be  provided  to  certain  areas  to  en- 
courage employment  grorth.  Dr.  Peter  Goldmark,  former  president 
of  CBS  Labs,  plans  such  a  positive  application  of  technology  in 
Connecticut.  In  his  HUD-funded  "city  of  the  future"  program,  ad- 
vanced telecommunications  would  be  used  to  enable  certain  office 
functions  to  move  from  a  crowded  coastal  city  to  rural  Connecticut 
while  still  maintaining  close  contact  vrith   the  head  office. 

The  above  impacts  have  dealt  xdth  land  use.  It  is  also  poss- 
ible to  look  at  the  impact  of  ecom  (electronics  communications)  on 
long  distance  business  travel.  The  British  Post  Office  recently 
opened  thoir  intercity,  closed  circuit,  COLIFRAVISION  studios  for 
business.  Jayy  groups  wishing  to  hold  a  remote  conference,  saj" 

10.  CPL  Exchange  Bitliogr^hy  #285 

between  London  and  Glasgov;,   sirply  make  an  appointxaent,   go  to  the 
respective  studios,  and  sit  before  the  car^ra  vhile  vieving  their 
coiinterparts  on  a  standard  television  monitor.     General  £lectric 
offers  a  somewhat  similar  send.ce  called  the  "Coinnand  FerforBanoe 
Netv?ork"  in  the  United  States  altho\igh  theirs  is  a  nore  expensive, 
customized,  large  screen  ser^ce.     In  a  local  context,   the  Hew  York 
Metropolitan  Regional  Council  plsns  to  have  a  closed  circ\iit  T7 
system  connecting  government  offices  in  seven  comunities  around 
ilevj  York,     The  stated  purpose  of  their  system  is  to  elirdnate  tiroe- 
consuming  travel  for  officials  and  increase  the  efficiency  of  con- 
munication  and  decision  making. 

There  is  also  the  ver;'  real  prospect  of  remote  shopping  which 
would  utilize  the  tv;o-way  capability  being  built  into  most  new 
cable  TV  networks.     In  the  simpler  systems  the  housewife  would 
vjatch  a  channel  or  channels  devoted  to  displaying  and  describing 
various  products.     Upon  seeing  a  desired  product  she  would  press  a 
button  on  the  TV  and  her  order  vould  be  recorded  and  subsequently 
delivered.     If  rddely  adopted,   remote  shopping  could  reverse  the 
present  trend  in  paving  over  great  suburban  ejqjanees  for  shcppir.g 
center  parking  lots  and  could  also  reduce  off-peak  auto  usa^. 

The  above  list  of  technology  ir^sacts  could  be  greatly  extend- 
ed.    The  possibilities  which  can  be  envisioned  in  a  few  Kinutes 
are  exciting  aixi  sometimes  frightening.     It  is  apparent  that  great 
changes  could  be  caused  in  travel  demand  patterns,  in  locational 
behavior,  and  in  every  activity  that  involves  ccnninicaticn.     Sone 
industries  wo\0.d  stagnate  v^uJLe  others  would  flourish.     Sone  per- 
sons would  profit  while  others  ifould  suffer  losses.     The  onl^'  con- 
stant \>dll  be  change. 

11.     CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #285 
From  the  spectrum  of  possibilities,  the  author  has  chosen  to 
examine  only  the  impact  of  telecom  advances  on  urban  form  and 
travel  demands.  The  folloidng  paragraphs  are  limited  to  that 

Aside  from  historic  needs  for  defense,  the  city  has  emerged 
as  the  appropriate  spatial  framework  for  an  economy  based  on  a 
specialization  of  labor  and  production.  Advances  in  art,  science, 
technology  and  production  all  require  increased  specialization. 
Thus  we  can  expect  increased  specialization  and  subsequent  growth 
in  the  communication  and  goods  exchange  required  to  support  it. 
Thus  the  need  for  a  functional  city  will  continue.  X-Jhat  then  is 
the  future  spatial  city? 

Many  geographers  have  traced  the  evolution  of  cities  and  not- 
ed how  transport  technology  has  been  a  key  determinant  of  their 
growth  patterns.  By  comparing  the  densities  of  older  downtox-m 
neighborhoods  x-jith  today's  low  density  suburbs,  it  becomes  appar- 
ent that  improvements  in  transport  per  se  have  not  caused  disper- 
sion directly  -  rather  they  have  reduced  the  relative  inportance 
of  transport  costs  as  a  locational  constraint.  Other  factors,  such 
as  the  desire  for  suburban  living,  have  therefore  gained  dominance 
and  caused  decentralization. 

Similarly,  communications  innovations  may  loosen  the  bonds 
that  still  tie  some  activities  to  the  center  cities,  and  previous- 
ly repressed  locational  desires  may  gain  prominence  and  dictate 
nevr  patterns.  In  particular  the  office  activity  is  a  prime  candi- 
date for  decentralization.  Offices  are  bound  together  because  they 

12.  CPL  Exchange  bibliography  #28$ 

are  conunLinication-intensive  activities.     There  is  laich  need  for 
rapid,   face-to-face  contact  between  a  >7ide  variety  of  office  work- 
ers.    Office  firms,  especially  sr.all  ones,   also  rely  heavily  on 
the   "external  econonles"  of  e^ert  consiiltants,  e.g.  lawyers, 
accountants,  and  printers.     Vhat  about  other  types  of  urban  en- 

Manufacturing  and  wholesaling  are  much  less  dependent  on  eam- 
munication.     They  depend  heavily  on  transport  facilities  but  in- 
creasingly the  best  transport  service  utilizes  trucks  and  freeways 
rather  than  railroads  and  waterways.     Thus,  vdth  the  nearly  ubiq-ji- 
tous  availability  of  good  road  transport  facilities,   trar^ort  per 
se  has  become  less  constraining  and  other  location  factors,  nota- 
bly space  for  expansion  and  cheap  land,   have  gained  dceiLnance. 
The  result  has  been  significant  long-term  decentralization  of  nanu- 
facturing  and  warehousing.     Retail  sales  were  once  concentrated 
downtovm  but  for  sometime  their  grovrth  has  largely'  gene  to  the  sub- 
urbs in  pursuit  of  the  customers. 

In  summary,   the  future  of  the  central  business  district  will 
depend  largely  on  its  ability  to  hold  and  attract  new  office  er.- 
ployment,   an     ability  vrhich  is  being  eroded  on  several  fronts.     In 
the  first  instance  central  cities  have  detractions.     Recent  artic- 
les have  mentioned  the  scarcity  of  honest,  industrious  labor,  the 
high  rents,   air  pollution  and  noise.     2rployees  fear  crime  in  the 
streets  and  grow  tired  of  long  commutes.     Traffic  congestion  grows 
worse  because  inner  city  residents  naturally  rebel  against  nev 
freeways  dividing  their  neighborhoods,   and  such  facilities  are 
enormously  expensive. 

13.      CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  //285 
The  result  is  that  offices  have  been  moving  from  the  CBD  to 
suburban  areas  in  increasing  numbers.  It  has  been  reported  that 
three-quarters  of  the  top  2C0  firms  in  Manhattan  are  considering 
moving  out.  Often  when  a  firm  cannot  move  entirely  and  still  main- 
tain vital  contacts,  it  vdll  decentralize  its  routine  functions. 
Those  functions  with  little  need  for  face-to-face  contact,  notably 
accounting,  bookkeeping,  and  data  processing,  are  moved  to  the  sub- 
urbs leaving  only  the  top  executives  and  their  personal  staffs 
downtown.   ..,..•. 

With  the  xd.despread  availability  of  closed  circuit  television 
and  rapid  fascimile,  it  may  be  possible  to  conduct  most  meetings 
electronically.  Therefore,  it  seems  intuitively  clear  that  advanc- 
es in  communications  viill  facilitate  such  decentralization,  both 
for  entire  organizations  and  functional  units.  An  exception  could 
be  the  delicate  negotiations  between  top  executives  which  may  defy 
substitution.  Even  if  their  contacts  could  be  substituted,  these 
persons  may  have  other  reasons  for  remaining  doxmtown.  Until  a 
persuasive  argument  is  made  to  the  contrary,  the  prudent  forecast- 
er should  assume  that  top  executives  will  remain  downtown  even 
though  professionals,  clerks  and  operating  departments  may  decen- 
tralize. The  timing  of  possible  decentralization  is  dependent  on 
the  fact  that  sophisticated  telecom  systems  will  not  be  available 
for  some  time  nor  can  the  office  tenants  break  their  leases  and 
abandon  the  CBD  overnight.  The  overall  hypothesis  is  that  the 
rate  of  downtown  office  grovrbh  will  continue  to  decline  gradually 
over  the  next  10  to  20  years  as  communications  advances  become  more 

lU.  CPL  Exchange  Htliography  #285 

readily  available.  Eventually,  the  absolute  level  of  CBD  et^lay- 
ment  may  fall;  this  trend  vrould  be  reflected  by  increased  vacancy 
rates  in  the  older,  less  desirable  bijildings. 

These  predictions  contradict  the  official  forecasts  in  sore 
cities  for  extensive  CBD  office  growth  and  are  significant  because 
transport  decisions  are  often  nade  on  the  basis  of  this  expected 
grov;th.     Failure  to  achieve  that  grovrth  vould  resiilt  in  under- 
utilization  and  huge  operating  deflcites  for  conventional  public 

The  planner's  problem  is  to  test  the  above  hj-pctheses  in  scoe 
rigorous  manner  in  order  to  avoid  making  major  errors  in  transport 
and  other  public  facility  investment  decisions  and  in  order  to 
guide  development  into  socially  desirable  configurations. 

The  purpose  of  this  document  so  far  has  been  to  suggest  vhy 
investigation  of  the  potential  for  substituting  ccritiuni cations  for 
transportation  should  be  important  to  urban  planners,   and  to  dis- 
cuss some  preliminary  hypotheses.     The  follovlng  sections  will 
outline  some  of  the  major  research  questions,   and  present  a  working 
bibliography  of  some  relevant  literature.     The  bibliography  itself 
is  organized  into  a  number  of  subject  categories.     In  the  paragraphs 
belov;  the  major  research  question  will  be  raised  and  keyed  to  these 

15.     CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #285 
1.  The  City 

uTiat  forces  determine  the  spatial  distribution  of  activities 
in  the  urban  area?  Ihat  are  the  current  distributions  of  em- 
ployment "by  type  and  what  have  been  the  trends? 

The  acadeirdc  field  most  applicable  here  is  urban  geography 
and  some  typical  authors  are  Hoover  and  Vernon  (LU  118), 
Wingo  (UF  9)  and  Rodvin  (LT  52).  The  bibliographic  categories 
are  "location  theory  (LT)",  "location-urban  form  (LU)",  and 
"urban  form  (UF)". 

Previous  work  in  urban  geography  has  identified  in  a  qua- 
litative sense  many  of  the  forces  determining  urban  form.  The 
locational  determinants  for  manufacturing,  warehousing,  and 
retail  sales  activities  have  been  the  subject  of  predictive 
and  normative  quantitative  models.  These  models  have  been 
developed  in  a  sub-field  called  "location  theory"  which  is 
shared  by  urban  geographers,  business  administrators,  and  econ- 

Unlike  population,  good  empirical  data  on  employment  dis- 
tribution has  been  hard  to  find.  We  really  do  not  know  where 
the  jobs  are  vjith  much  accuracy  nor  do  we  have  good  breakdowns 
by  occupation,  income  and  so  forth.  Available  labor  statis- 
tics are  often  disaggregated  from  regional  or  state  totals 
rather  than  aggregated  up  from  the  census  tract  level.  For- 
tunately, place  of  work  data  has  been  gathered  by  the  1970 
Census  of  Population  for  the  first  time. 

16.     CPL  2xchange  Bibliography  #265 

2.  Office  ZrTplo:/r^nt  end  Location 

llnat  is  the  amount  and  location  of  office  esflajustit  by  occu- 
pation, income,  etc?     Vhat  are  the  determnants  of  office 
location?     Can  future  office  location  be  predicted? 

;.3  above,  office  employment  data  has  been  difficult  to 
obtain  but  the  1570  census  should  help  imnensely.     Bibliogr^- 
hic  categories  are   "erployTnent,   office  (ZO)",   and  "land  use 

Office  location  theory  is  almost  unexplored  territory. 
I'ost  work  in  this  field  has  been  descriptive  and  analysis  has 
been  generally  limited  to  the  identification  of  locational  cri- 
teria.    No  quantitative  models  have  been  developed  to  the 
author's  knowledge,   although  the  CoEJnunications  Study  Grocp  of 
the  JUPR  in  London  is  vorking  on  the  problem.     References  in- 
clude Fye  (LT  U8)   and  Goddard  (LC  15  and  LC  16). 

3.  Office  Contact  Patterns 

What  are  the  communication  and  face-to-face  contact  require- 
ments of  office  activities  and  personnel? 

jilthough  the  ir5)ortance  of  face-to-face  contact  as  a 
factor  binding  office  activities  to  the  CBD  has  often  been 
mentioned,   there  have  been  surprisingly  fev  espirical  studies 
of  these  contacts.     Some  exceptions  are:     Goddard  {LC  17), 
Tornquist   (LC  28),  Warneryd  (LC  30),  Thorngren  (LC  27)   and 
Reid  (LC  2l4).     The  bibliographic  category  for  contact  studies 
is  "location,  contacts  (LC)"  acd  "comuni cations,  business 

17.      CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #285 
Most  of  the  eirpirical  work  has  consisted  of  having  every 
eiriployee  in  a  given  organization  record  all  his  trips  in  a 
"contact  diary".  In  addition  the  length,  destination,  purpose 
and  other  details  are  recorded  for  a  small  sairiple  of  all  con- 
tacts. With  this  data  it  is  possible  to  quantitatively  des- 
cribe the  organizations  contact  requirements  and  speculate 
about  the  types  and  capacity  of  telecommunications  substitu- 
tes. Ultimately  this  type  of  data  should  allovj  for  the  design 
of  telecommunications  substitutes  in  the  same  way  Origin- 
Destination  Surveys  provide  an  empirical  base  for  making  fore- 
casts of  future  travel  demands. 

I4.  Telecommunications  Systems 

liTiat  are  the  various  telecommunications  terminals  and  networks 
that  would  be  required  to  support  ididespread  substitution? 
How  could  these  evolve  from  existing  systems  such  as  the  tele- 
phone systems,  data  networks  and  cable  TV?  What  are  the  key 
technological  advances  needed  for  lower  costs  and  better  per- 
formance? What  cost  and  performance  levels  seem  possible  in 
the  next  20  years? 

Relevant  bibliographic  categories  are:  "communication 
hardware  (CH)"  and  "coirmunication  netxirorks  (GIJ)." 

The  above  questions  have  not  been  systematically  consid- 
ered from  the  viewpoint  of  assessing  substitution  possibilities. 
However,  there  are  numerous  terminal  devices  and  transmission 
systems  in  operation  and  in  various  stages  of  development  about 
vjhich  data  is  available.  A  recent  book  by  Martin  provides  an 

18.  CPL  Exchange  Eiblicgraphy  #265 

excellent,   serd-technical  overview  of  these  technologies   (C  12), 

The  report  on  the  use  of  electronic  transndssion  devices  by 

the  U.S.  Postal  Service  by  General  Dynardcs  also  pro'/i.dez  nuch 

useful  data  on  facsimile  devices  and  transicission  networics 

(CH  66). 

The  three  basic  services  that  teleconfeiencing  terminals 
may  provide  are  real  time  audio,   facsimile,   and  real  tine  or 
low  frame  rate  video.     These  basic  services  include  nany  vari- 
ations such  as  high  fidelity  sound  or  large  screen  T!.     The 
fundamental  engineering  problem  is  to  design  a  teleconference 
facility  that  is  convenient  and  natural  to  use  vithin  the 
constraints  of  technological  feasibility  ar^  reasonable  cost. 
The  multilocation  video  conference  is  a  decided  challenge  in 
this  respect. 

Network  technologies  include  telephone  lines,  modified 
telephone  lines   (as  used  for  Picturephone),   coaxial  cables, 
millimeter  wave  guides,  microwaves,   fibre  optics,   non-coherent 
light  beams  and  laser  beams.     In  addition  to  the  technology 
there  is  the  question  of  ovnership.     Till  the  future  telecon- 
ference system  grow  out  of  the  Bell  Telephone  system,   the  data 
networks  like  DATRAI^,   or  from  cable  TV? 

5.     ^ffoctivonoss  of  Communications  Substitutes  for  raco-tc-Fgee 

How  effective  are  various  types  of  teleccrimini cations  systems 

as  substitutes  for  face-to-face  contacts  in  terns  of  accurate 

and  efficient  transfer  of  information,   emotions,  iryressions, 


19.    CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #285 
Bibliographic  categories  are:  "coranunication,  psycholog- 
ical aspects  (CP)"  and  "communications,  substitution  (CS)". 

This  area  is  almost  totally  unexplored  vith  the  notable 
exception  of  Reid's  Communication  Study  Group  at  the  Joint 
Unit  for  Planning  Research  in  London  (CP  11^2,  CS  186,  l87, 
188,  189,  207,  208,  209,  210,  211,  and  212).  Bell  Telephone 
Laboratories  in  Holmdale,  Hew  Jersey  has  also  done  extensive 
hardware  development  work  on  both  Picturephone  and  closed 
circuit  T.V.  teleconferencing.  Unfortunately,  little  of  this 
information  has  been  published  (CP  138).  A  search  of  the 
literature  in  psychology  reveals  some  material  on  the  value  of 
non-verbal  communication  but  nothing  where  media  are  compared 
for  effectiveness.  E^qperiences  educational  television 
may  also  be  helpfiilj  see  for  example  CP  lii3. 

Pi.esearch  in  this  area  has  consisted  largely  of  laboratory 
experiments  where  subjects  are  asked  to  discuss,  negotiate  and 
solve  problems  using  different  modes  of  communication  such  as 
face-to-face,  telephone,  and  closed  circuit  T.V.  Iledia  effects 
are  isolated  and  refined  in  subsequent  experiments.  The  Com- 
munications Study  Group  is  also  conducting  several  field  trails 
of  different  teleconference  systems, 

6.  Personal  Attitudes  Tov;ard  Travel 

VJhat  are  the  personal  reasons  for  desiring  or  not  desiring 
travel  as  perceived  by  various  persons  in  various  situations? 
How  influential  might  these  factors  be  when  an  individual 
chooses  between  teleconferencing  and  travel? 

20.  CPL  ::xchsnge  Eiblicgraphy  #285 

It  has  been  suggested  that  travel  is  often  dedrccle  for 
a  change  in  pace,  time  to  relax,   opportunity  for  sightseeir^, 
and  expense  accoxint  living.     On  the  other  hand  travel  is  often 
tiresome,   scenery  repetitious  ,   and  it  separates  the  business- 
man from  his  family.     Before  vre  can  estimate  the  prctability  of 
substitution,  these  personal  factors  night  be  assessed. 

The  author  has  not  yet  searched  for  previc\is  research  on 
this  topic,   therefore  no  materials  are  included  in  the  biblio- 
graphy,    .'ji  anonymous  questionnaire  survey  of  travelers  Ki^t 
be  an  appropriate  research  approach. 

7.     Benefits  and  Costs  of  oubstitution 

lihat  are  the  economic  and  non-econoric  tradeoffs  betveen  tele- 
conferencing and  travel  as  seen  by  the  erploying  orgardzaticn? 

Bibliographic  refei*ences  are  fo'ond  under  "ccmunication, 
substitution  (CS)",  and  "cormini cation  networks   (CN)". 

liost  organizations  vrill  ultimately  adept  a  policy  tabard 
the  uJse  of  teleconferencing  and  travel.     Pres\inably  this  policy 
^dill  be  based  on  a  corparison  of  the  various  benefits  and  costs 
of  both  modes.     Perhaps  the  best  way  to  estimate  future  substi- 
tution and  relocation  vrould  be  to  postulate  it  as  an  alternative 
course  of  action  for  a  number  of  typical  organizations,   evalu- 
ate the  alternatives,   and  estimate  the  likely  decision. 

Hard  data  on  the  benefits  and  costs  of  futuire  substitution 
are  of  course  impossible  to  obtain,     ^ieither  the  hardware  re- 
quirements nor  the  hardware  costs  are  known.     ?}evertheless, 

21.     GPL  3xchange  Bibliography  #28^ 
technological  forecasts  can  be  attempted  of  probable  future 
user  costs  for  various  audio,  facsimile  and  video  services. 
These  can  be  compared  vjitii  travel  costs  and  value-of-time  esti- 
mates. Mscellaneous  cost  data  can  be  discovered  in  the  com- 
munications technology  literature  but  the  author  is  aware  of 
only  two  actual  cost  comparisons  (CS  199,  200  and  CS  210) . 

8.  Probability  of  Office  Decentralization 

Does  it  seem  likely  that  office  activities  TdJ.1  choose  to  sub- 
stitute telecom  for  intra-CBD  business  travel  and  move  to  sub- 
urban locations?  If  offices  relocate  they  will  decrease  the 
need  for  supporting  activities  such  as  lunch  counters  in  the 
CBD|  can  the  net  change  in  total  CBD  employment  be  estimated 
if  "X"  office  workers  decentralize?  Relevant  material  is 
found  under:  "location  theory  (LT)",  "communications  substi- 
tution (CS)",  "transport  and  urban  form  (TU)",  and  "employment 
multiplier  (SM)". 

In  response  to  the  new  telecommunications  services  the 
typical  CBD  office  has  several  options: 

1)  Does  not  use  telecom  substitutes  and  remains  in  pre- 
sent CBD  location. 

2)  Uses  telecom  substitutes  but  remains  in  present  CBD 

3)  Does  not  use  telecom  but  moves  to  a  non-CBD  location. 

h)     Uses  telecom  substitutes  and  moves  to  non-CBD  loca- 

5)  Uses  some  telecom  substitutes  and  decentralizes  some 
functions  or  departments. 

22.  CPL  Exchange  Bibliographar  #28$ 

One  approach  for  analyzing  these  possitillti^s  is  to  con- 
struct scgnarios  of  each  option  for  a  given  firr..     7:.;.-.   i 
benefit/cost  coirparison  of  each  scenario  would  be  made  and  the 
firm's  probable  response  estimated.     Three  problems  with  this 
approach  are:     1)   actual  managerial  location  decisions  may 
bear  little  relation  to  vihat  the  benefit/cost  anal/sis  indica- 
tes is  best;   2)  most  needed  data  is  uncvailablej  3)   each  fim 
may  be  so  vinique  that  results  can  not  be  generalized. 

In  spite  of  these  pitfalls  this  systematic  approach  should 
be  educational,  help  to  identify  data  needs,   axid  perhaps  give 
some  useful  res\ilts  if  the  options  have  overvhelminglj'  large 
benefit/cost  differences  that  would  cancel  data  errors. 

The  benefit/cost  approach  is  being  used  by  the  British 
Government  in  a  large  operations  research  project  which  would 
guide  the  relocation  of  some  government  offices  frcr.  over- 
crovrded  London.     Little  has  been  published  about  this  "Loca- 
tion of  Government"  project  (SR  21) . 

A  second  approach  might  be  to  develop  an  office  location 
model  based  on  historic  location  behavior  and  which  was  sensi- 
tive to  contact  costs.     If  the  iirportanee  of  contact  costs  in 
previous  location  decisions  could  be  quantified  then  perhaps 
future  costs   (not  sinply  economic  costs  but  including  also 
measures  of  communications  effectiveness)   for  advanced  tele- 
conference systems  could  be  estimated  and  their  influence  on 
location  forecast.     This  approach  is  similar  to  the  ncdal 
split  model  used  by  transportation  planners  in  that  it  would 

23.     CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  ?;'285 
employ  correlations  based  on  observation  of  past  behavior 
rather  than  a  true  understanding  of  all  reasons  for  that  be- 
havior. Just  as  conventional  modal  split  models  probably  vill 
not  be  valid  for  truly  innovative  transport  systems,  so  also 
might  this  approach  fail  for  advanced  communications  systems. 

9.  Job  Decentralization  and  Travel  Demand 

Vihat  effect  would  job  decentralization  have  on  urban  transpor- 
tation demands?  Would  the  need  for  new  freevTays  or  rapid 
transit  be  altered?  ¥hat  types  of  transportation  systems 
would  be  most  appropriate  for  a  decentralized  city? 

Bibliographic  categories  are:  "transport  evaluation  {T2)" , 
"transport  models  (TM)",  "transport  and  urban  form  (TU)", 
"transport  and  journey-to-work  (TIJ)",  and  to  a  lesser  extent: 
"errployment  relocation  (ER)",  and  "urban  form  (UF)". 

Work  has  been  done  on  decentralization  and  the  journey- 
to-work  by  Peter  Daniels  at  the  University  of  Liverpool  and  by 
the  Location  of  Offices  Bureau  in  London.   (TO  37,  TW  h3,   and 
ER  18  and  29). 

In  addition,  many  urban  areas  have  conducted  transporta- 
tion studies  in  which  alternate  land  use  patterns  were  evalu- 
ated. These  may  have  some  useful  data  although  detailed  study 
would  be  needed  to  determine  whether  the  models  accurately 
show  the  relation  between  land  use  changes  and  network  demand 
changes.  The  use  of  a  "gravity  distribution"  instead  of  one 
based  primarily  on  "intervening  opportunities"  is  questionable. 

2U.     CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  ^BS 
A   sensitive  "capacity  restraint"  progrsn  is  also  needed  to  de- 
tect v/hen  new  facilities  are  needed,  but  capacity  restraint 
techniques  are  generally  coarse. 

From  the  lindted  data  now  available,  sorae  of  which  is 
based  on  questionable  assumption  or  model  techniques,  it  ap- 
pears this  problem  has  not  been  solved.  \.e   don't  quantitative- 
ly understand  the  relation  between  urban  decentralization  ard 
travel  demands  in  terms  of  pattern,  mode  and  trip  length. 

One  obvious  approach  is  to  postulate  a  dispersed  job  pat- 
tern for  some  city,  rerun  the  network  r.odels  and  observe  the 
forecast  demands.  This  should  be  done  only  after  modifj'ing 
the  distribution,  capacity  restraint  and  other  programs  as 

A  second  approach  is  to  look  at  the  changes  in  the  travel 
habit  of  workers  whose  firms  have  actually  left  the  CED.  The 
English  studies  have  done  this.  They  show  that  the  percent 
using  transit  drops  for  decentralized  workers,  trip  length  nay 
increase  slightly  or  decrease  considerably  depending  on  whether 
the  firm  moves  to  the  suburbs  or  to  a  distant  snail  town  and 
trip  patterns  obviously  change  from  radially  oriented  to  dis- 

The  inplications  of  dispersion  ai^  that  either  the  auto- 
mobile, bus  or  a  low  line  cspacity,  diverse  network  systen 
like  Personal  Rapid  Transit  (PRT)  would  be  most  appropriate. 

25.     CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #285 
10.  Social  Benefits  and  Costs  of  Decentralization 

I'Jhat  would  be  the  overall  benefits  and  costs  to  society  of  a 
more  dispersed  urban  form  supported  by  telecommunications  as 
opposed  to  the  somewhat  more  concentrated  one  likely  without 
telecommunications  substitution?  Based  on  the  above,  what 
are  the  appropriate  policies  for  concerned  government  agencies 
such  as  the  Departments  of  Transportation,  Housing  and  Urban 
Development,  and  Commerce  (FCC)? 

Bibliographic  categories  "commiinication  revolution  (CR)", 
"transportation  evaluation  (2T)",  and  "urban  planning  (UP)", 
may  contain  some  relevant  materials  although  the  author  is 
not  aware  of  any  significant  work  focused  on  these  questions. 
With  major  decisions  being  made  daily  on  freeways  and  rapid 
transit,  policy  research  on  decentralization  and  telecommuni- 
cations is  both  timely  and  necessary. 

One  primary  benefit  of  job  decentralization  (to  small 
office  parks  or  suburban  centers)  is  that  workers  could  re- 
side closer  to  their  jobs.  Other  benefits  would  be  to  avoid 
the  cost  and  neighborhood  disruption  of  building  additional 
transport  facilities  serving  the  CBD,  and  to  decrease  nation- 
al consuirption  of  a  limited  resource  namely,  gasoline. 

On  the  debit  side,  decentralization  may  not  automatically 
induce  shorter  work  trips.  Much  depends  on  where  the  jobs  go 
and  whether  or  not  workers  move  their  homes.  Carried  too  far, 
decentralization  could  lower  CBD  property  values,  tax  receipts 
and  the  economic  viability  of  existing  transit  systems. 

26.  CFL  Exchange  BLhllograftj  #285 

The  above  list  of  benefits  and  costs  treat  only  a  srall 
aspect  of  the  coirmunications  revolution.     Yet  their  dinen- 
sions  are  staggering  since  the  United  states  presently  spends 
about  twenty  percent  of  its  gross  national  prod'oct  on  trar.s- 
portation  and  236  ndllion  people  are  expected  to  live  in  o\ir 
urban  areas  by  the  year  2000.     Our  major  planning  deficiency 
lies  in  not  understanding  the  ccrmunications  revolution  nor 
in  how  to  direct  it  for  the  naxLinuin  good.     A  ccrprehensive 
technology  assessment  is  clearly  needed. 

27.  CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #285 

PiLRT  II  :; 


1.  Entries  appear  only  once  although  they  may  include  material 
vjhich  relates  to  more  than  one  "Bibliographic  Category". 

2.  Abbreviations  used  in  the  enteries  are: 

NTIS  -  National  Technical  Information  Service j  U.S.  Department 
of  Commerce,  Springfield,  Virginia  221^1 . 

JUPR  -  Joint  Unit  for  Planning  Research,  University  College 

London/London  School  of  Economics,  172  Tottingham  Court 
Road,  London.  I'lP. 

CSG     -  Communications  Study  Group.     A  group  -within  the  JUPR 
under  the  direction  of  Alex  Reid. 

28.  CPL  Exchange  BitHogrspiiy  #285 


C     -  C onTTuni c ati ons ,   general  and  rise. 

CA  -  ;.ppli cations,   £:d.3ting 

C/J-  /.pplications.  Futuristic 

CB  -  C  orjraini  c  ati  one,    Business 

CH  -  Hardware,  innovative  terrdnal  devices 

ClI  -  ilotv'orks  and  Tr&nsnission  3yster.3 

CP  -  Psychological  ,.spects  of  Substitution 

CR  -  Ccrjnuni cation  ^.evolution,   broad  social  irplicationa 

CS  -  Substitution  of  Telecon  for  Travel 

S     -  SiTiglo^Tient,   general  and  ndsc, 

ETl  -  ^■aiployment  Kultiplier,   ratio  of  office  ;rcrkers  to 

supporting  services 
EO  -  Offices 
3R  -  Smployment  Relocation^   dispersal 

L     -  Location  of  Urban  ;ctivities,   general  and  rise. 

LC  -  Contact  Patterns,  business  travel 
LT  -  Location  Theory,  predictive  and  normative 
LU  -  Location  and  Urban  Fom,   erperical  survey  data,   and 


T     -  Transportation,   general  and  ndsc. 

T3  -  Svaluation  (benefit  and  cost)   and  Policy 

Tl'I  -  liodels  £nd  Planning  Techniques 

TS  -  Studies,   for  actual  cities 

TU  -  Transport  and  Urban  Fon-i,  interaction  of 

TV  -  Journey  to  Vork 

U     -  Urban,   general  and  misc. 

UF  -  Urban  Form,   theories  and  descriptions 

UIJ  -  New  ToAms 

UP  -  Urban  Planning,  theory  and  techniques 

29.      CPL  Exchange  Bibliography  #28^ 

1  Abler,  Ronald.  Geographical  Futuristics;  A  Case  Study.  A 

keynote  address  for  session  on  "The  Future  of  Geography  in 
Teaching  and  Research"  at  21st  /jinual  heeting  of  Canadian 
Association  of  Geographies,  Waterloo,  Ontario,  June  1,  1971, 

22  p.  mimeo. 

2  Colston  Research  Society  Syinposiuin  21st,  held  March  2li-28, 

1969.  University  of  Bristol,  Coiimuni cation  and  anergy  in 
Changing  Urban  Environments ,  Colston  Papers^21,  Colston 
Research' Society  (Snclc-nd),  CCVjones,  C1970,  Archon,  1971, 

23  p^,  (ASTIC  1068Uli).  • 

3  Committee  on  Public  Sngineering  Policy,  National  Academy  of 

Engineering,  A  Study  of  Technology  Assessment,  U.S.  Govern- 
ment Printing  Office,  Washington,  D.C.,  July  1969. 

k       "Communications."  Time,  September  6,  1968,  p.  85. 

$       CovTan,  Peter.  "Communications,"  Urban  Studies,  Vol.  6,  No.  3, 

6  CSG,  The  use  of  telecommunications  in  a  relocation  study,  CSG, 

JUPR,  London.  Contains: 

a)  C/70317/PY  Eff'^ct'  of  substitution  en  soimunicaticns 

damage . 

b)  W/7032U/RD  Measure  of  communications  damage. 

c)  W/7033Ui^D  Report  of  December  7th  meeting. 

d)  C/7IO36/PY  Effect  of  substitution  and  measure  of 

commiinications  damage. 

7  Deutsch,  Karl  VJ.  "On  Social  Communications  and  the  Metro- 

polis," Communication  and  Culture,  Hult,  Rinehart  & 
Winston,  New  York,  1966. 

8  Ferkiss,  Victor  C.  Technological  Man:  The  Myth  and  the 

Reality,  Mentor^  New  York,  1970. 

9  Hmelar,  Stephen!.   "The  Information  Age,"  Eascon  '70  Record 

of  Electronics  and  Aerospace  Systems  Convention,  Washington, 
D.C.,  October  26-28,  1970.  IEEE  Publication  70  C  I6-AES, 
pp.  193-198.  .    .  •.•  . 

10  Institute  for  Communication  Research,  .Stanford  University, 

Educational  Television,  The  Next  Ten  Years,  Stanford, 
California,  1962. 

.  *<-.  .  '        .  ..-  ■ 

11  Kahn,  Herman  and  Anthony  J.  l.einer.  The  Year  2000— A  Frame- 

work for  Speculations,  The  Hudson  Institute,  New  York, 

30.         CPL  Zzchci^e  Bibliography  #285 

12  Martin,  James.     Futui-e  Developnents  in  Telecccrainications, 

Prentice -Hall,   Znglewood  Cliffs,   liev  Jersey,   1>71. 

13  Meier,  Richard  L.     'The  Hetrcpolis  as  a  Transaction  y^axLrlzir-r; 

System,''  Daedelus,   Fall  1968. 

Ill     Metropolitan  Fund,  Inc.     Regional  Urban  Comunicaticns, 
Detroit,  l^chigan,  March  197C. 

15  Schramm,  V/ilbur.      "Information  Theory  and  Mass  CcKTrvirdcation," 

Communications  and  Culture,  /. .G.   Smith,   ed..  Holt,  Riri»- 
hart  &  V/inston,  New  York,   1566. 

16  "The  TV  Netv;orks  Shrug  off  Hew  Corpetition."     Business  Veek, 

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Post  Office  Box  229 
lionticello,   Illinois     61C56 

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